Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-11 08:16Core Insights - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August is expected to show persistent inflation, with economists predicting a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, marking the highest level since January [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, remaining unchanged from previous values [2] - The impact of tariffs is expected to continue influencing inflation, with significant increases in tariff revenue and costs being passed on to consumers [2][3] Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts a core CPI increase of 0.36% month-over-month, slightly above market expectations, pushing the year-over-year core CPI to 3.13% [2] - Bank of America also predicts stubborn inflation for August, attributing it to rising energy prices and stable goods inflation driven by tariffs [3] - Ameriprise anticipates a month-over-month CPI increase of 0.4%, driven by rising food prices and the gradual transmission of tariff costs [5] Consumer Sentiment - A survey from the University of Michigan indicates that American households expect inflation to rise by 4.8% over the next year, significantly higher than the market forecast of 2.6% [5] - The psychological impact of tariffs is noted, with concerns about ongoing cost increases affecting consumer perceptions of inflation [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is influenced by the CPI data, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [9] - The economic landscape remains hotter than the Fed would prefer, leading to cautious considerations regarding future rate cuts [9]