三季度碳酸锂环比上涨12%，锂业公司盈利阶段性触底

Core Insights - The lithium carbonate spot price has dropped to around 70,000 yuan/ton due to the resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL and a decline in lithium carbonate futures [1][8] - Despite a decrease in lithium mica and its derived lithium carbonate production in August, overall domestic lithium carbonate production continued to grow, indicating significant supply elasticity in the market [2][6] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the third quarter is 72,947.92 yuan/ton, reflecting a nearly 12% increase compared to the second quarter [2][10] Supply and Production - In August, lithium mica production decreased significantly, with a reported 13,980 tons LCE produced, down 7,120 tons from the previous month [5] - The overall lithium carbonate production in August reached 85,000 tons, a 39% increase year-on-year and a 5% increase month-on-month [7] - The supply-demand imbalance persists, with the market remaining oversupplied despite fluctuations in production due to external factors [7][12] Price Fluctuations - The lithium carbonate market experienced two price increases in the third quarter, driven by speculation and supply disruptions [4] - Following the announcement of the Jiangxiawo mine's resumption, the futures market and related lithium stocks saw significant declines, indicating a return to a supply-overhang pricing environment [8][15] - The average price of lithium hydroxide also increased compared to the second quarter, contributing to improved profitability for certain lithium salt companies [10][12] Profitability and Market Dynamics - Companies that did not experience production cuts are expected to see a temporary bottoming out of profits in the third quarter [3] - Salt lake enterprises with stable production costs are likely to see a recovery in profit margins, although the impact of rising lithium prices may be limited due to their cost advantages [11][12] - Companies like Zhongkuang Resources are projected to potentially turn losses into profits in the third quarter due to the increase in lithium carbonate prices [13] Future Outlook - New low-cost production capacity is expected to come online soon, which may further increase supply pressure in the market [14] - The potential for the Jiangxiawo lithium mine to resume production raises uncertainty about whether the spot price of lithium carbonate can maintain above 70,000 yuan/ton [15]