Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (SZ:000792) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-09-11 11:54Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate spot price has dropped to around 70,000 yuan/ton due to the resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL and a decline in lithium carbonate futures prices [1][11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In August, the production of lithium mica and its derived lithium carbonate decreased, but the overall domestic lithium carbonate production continued to grow due to increased output from other raw materials like spodumene, leading to persistent oversupply [2][5]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the third quarter (as of September 11) was 72,947.92 yuan/ton, which is approximately 12% higher than the second quarter average [2][8]. Market Fluctuations - The domestic lithium carbonate market experienced two rounds of price increases in the third quarter, driven by speculation around regulatory policies and supply disruptions [4]. - The market's response to the news of production stoppages and resumptions has led to significant price volatility in both futures and spot markets [6]. Production Insights - In August, lithium carbonate production reached 85,000 tons, a 39% increase year-on-year and a 5% increase month-on-month [6]. - Companies with stable production have the potential for profitability recovery in the third quarter, particularly those with fixed costs [3][9]. Cost and Profitability - Salt lake enterprises, which have stable production costs, are expected to see a recovery in profit margins due to the increase in lithium prices, although the impact may not be as pronounced [9]. - Companies like Zhongkuang Resources may achieve a turnaround in profitability in the third quarter as lithium carbonate prices rise to 73,000 yuan/ton [10]. Future Outlook - The potential resumption of production at CATL's Jiangxiawo lithium mine raises uncertainty about whether the spot price can maintain above 70,000 yuan/ton [11].