美国8月整体通胀或逼近3%，美联储能否连续降息？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August is expected to show a gradual increase in inflation, influenced by rising food and energy prices, with a projected year-on-year growth from 2.7% in July to 2.9% in August [1][2][5] - Analysts suggest that the recent weakening of U.S. economic data, including employment figures, reflects a cooling domestic demand trend, which may pave the way for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in September [1][5][7] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is anticipated to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1][2] Group 2 - The articles highlight that the inflation data for July showed a stable year-on-year CPI growth of 2.7%, which was below market expectations, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, indicating a potential temporary nature of core inflation increases [2][3] - Analysts from various institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, predict that the inflation trend will continue to rise in August, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month increase in overall CPI driven by food and energy prices [2][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates is expected to be influenced by the upcoming inflation data, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, as indicated by market pricing [6][7][8] Group 3 - The articles discuss the potential market reactions to the CPI data, suggesting that lower-than-expected inflation could lead to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, while higher-than-expected inflation might temper rate cut expectations [7][8] - Historical data indicates that the stock market's performance following the resumption of rate cuts is contingent on whether the economy enters a recession, with different outcomes observed in recessionary versus expansionary periods [7][8] - The anticipated impact of inflation data on the S&P 500 index is outlined, with specific ranges of core CPI growth linked to potential market movements, indicating a nuanced relationship between inflation metrics and stock performance [8]