美国8月CPI波澜不惊 2024年美联储“三连降息”剧本即将重演?

Core Inflation and CPI Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations, while the overall CPI rose by 0.4%, marking the largest monthly increase this year [1][2][7] - Year-over-year, the core CPI grew by 3.1%, consistent with previous values and market forecasts, while the overall CPI increased by 2.9%, up from 2.7% in the prior period [2][7] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Actions - Traders are betting on the Federal Reserve announcing its first rate cut of the year next week, with a majority expecting a 25 basis point reduction, although some speculate a more aggressive 50 basis point cut due to weak jobless claims data [1][9] - The probability of a 50 basis point cut in September rose from under 5% to around 10% following the CPI data release [1] - Market sentiment indicates expectations for a series of rate cuts starting in September, with projections for three consecutive cuts, similar to the pattern anticipated for 2024 [1][11] Economic Indicators and Employment Data - The report highlights rising prices in various sectors, including new and used cars, clothing, and household appliances, with significant increases in service costs such as airfare [5][6] - The housing cost, a major component of CPI, saw a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, reflecting rising rents and hotel prices [6] - Initial jobless claims surged to a near four-year high, reinforcing expectations of a softening labor market and the need for Federal Reserve intervention [8][10] Analyst Predictions and Future Outlook - Analysts from CIBC Capital Markets and Barclays have adjusted their forecasts, now predicting multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with Barclays expecting three cuts of 25 basis points each [9][11][12] - Mizuho anticipates that the Federal Reserve will shift its focus from combating inflation to supporting economic growth, initiating a new rate cut cycle in September [13]