“空头”盯上了海底捞

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Haidilao is facing significant challenges due to a sharp decline in stock price and weak core business growth, leading to increased short-selling activity and market skepticism about its long-term growth prospects [1][4]. - Haidilao's stock has dropped 29% from its peak in March, reaching a one-year low, with short positions at their highest level in nearly three years, indicating a pessimistic outlook from the market [1][4]. - The company reported a second consecutive half-year decline in sales, primarily due to the impact of a price war in the takeaway sector and weak consumer spending [4]. Group 2 - In response to growth pressures, Haidilao is attempting to expand into overseas markets and launch new brands, such as "Banquet BBQ House," as part of its diversification strategy [4]. - However, these diversification efforts have had limited success, with analysts questioning the timing of when these new brands will generate meaningful revenue [4]. - Haidilao's table turnover rate decreased by 9.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, highlighting operational challenges amid increasing market competition and cautious consumer spending [4]. Group 3 - Despite the challenges, most analysts maintain an optimistic outlook on Haidilao's stock, with 32 buy ratings and no sell ratings according to Bloomberg data [4]. - The average target price suggests a potential upside of 28% over the next 12 months based on the stock's closing price [5]. - Potential government stimulus measures could aid Haidilao's recovery, as China's commitment to a 5% economic growth target by 2025 may necessitate consumer spending initiatives, creating a favorable policy environment [5].