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周黑鸭(01458.HK):门店单店同比增长 新渠道持续发展

Company Performance - In 1H25, the company improved same-store performance and effectively controlled expenses in emerging channels, focusing on efficiency enhancement [1] - The total number of stores decreased by 167 to 2864 compared to 2024, with self-operated stores down by 18 and franchised stores down by 149 [1] - Average same-store revenue increased by 12% for self-operated stores and 14% for franchised stores year-on-year [1] - Other income, mainly from packaged food distribution, grew by 27.5% year-on-year to 0.7 billion [1] - Gross profit margin increased by 3.3 percentage points to 58.6%, attributed to low raw material prices and improved store quality [1] - The net profit margin for 1H25 was 8.8%, up by 6.2 and 3.3 percentage points compared to 1H24 and 2H24, respectively [1] Future Outlook - In 2H25, the company will continue to enhance store quality, optimize products, and refine promotional strategies for emerging channels, expecting sustained growth [1] - The company plans to upgrade store renovations and strengthen professional management and service, enhancing private member operations and deepening partnerships with delivery services and live streaming [1] - The "braised meat +" packaged food segment will continue to expand, with plans to optimize product matrices for various retail channels [1] - The company anticipates further acceleration in the scale of emerging channels from 2H25 to 2026 [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit expectations for 2025 and 2026 are maintained, with a target price of 3.0 HKD [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24.7 and 22.3 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, while the target price corresponds to approximately 32 and 29 times P/E for the same years [2] - There is an estimated upside potential of about 28.8% from the current price to the target price, maintaining an outperform rating [2]