KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-12 06:04Core Viewpoint - The recent relaxation of the strict "ban on alcohol" signals a potential recovery for the liquor market, particularly with the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, but underlying structural challenges remain unresolved [3][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The relaxation of the "ban on alcohol" has led to various local governments implementing policies to stimulate consumption, such as the 1.78 billion yuan initiative in Shaoxing to boost dining and hospitality sectors, which is expected to enhance liquor sales during festive periods [4][5]. - In regions like Henan and Anhui, state-owned enterprise executives have resumed hotel consumption, and local governments are encouraging normal social consumption among civil servants, which is crucial for restoring market confidence [5]. Group 2: Market Challenges - Despite the policy relaxation, the liquor market has not experienced a "V-shaped rebound," as many businesses still face significant sales challenges, particularly in the high-end segment where price and sales volume discrepancies persist [6][7]. - The mid to low-end liquor market continues to struggle due to a lack of consumption scenarios, with many distributors reporting high inventory levels and cash flow difficulties [7]. Group 3: Long-term Market Dynamics - The "ban on alcohol" has accelerated a structural shift in the Chinese liquor market from being driven by government consumption to being driven by mass consumer spending, which is essential for the market's long-term health and sustainability [9]. - Companies are advised to adopt pragmatic strategies during the festive consumption window, focusing on promotions and channel management to address pricing issues and rebuild a healthy market order [9].