中国核电：核电业务稳健前行，新能源狂飙下盈利隐忧与未来潜力并存

Core Insights - The energy sector is undergoing a significant transformation driven by the increasing power consumption of AI applications like ChatGPT, with nuclear energy emerging as a key player in supporting the AI industry [1] - Nuclear power's stability is its greatest advantage, providing uninterrupted base load power, with a million-kilowatt nuclear power plant generating up to 8 billion kilowatt-hours annually, sufficient to support 1.6 million high-power AI servers [3] - China is accelerating its nuclear energy development, approving the construction of 10 nuclear power units in both 2022 and 2023, and a record 11 units in 2024, with a total of 19 units under construction or planned by mid-2025 [3][4] Company Performance - China Nuclear Power is facing a profit decline despite revenue growth, with net profit expected to drop by 17.38% to 8.777 billion yuan in 2024 and a further 3.66% to 5.666 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][4] - In the core nuclear power business, electricity generation increased by 12.13% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 93.551 billion kilowatt-hours, but the average on-grid electricity price fell from 0.367 yuan to 0.35 yuan per kilowatt-hour, compressing profit margins [4] - The renewable energy segment is growing rapidly, with a 42.5% increase in generation to 33.2 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, but net profit decreased by 5 billion yuan due to rising depreciation costs and a high market transaction ratio leading to lower electricity prices [4] Strategic Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the strategic layout of China Nuclear Power is showing results, with the synergistic development of nuclear and renewable energy ensuring stable base load and enhancing the grid's capacity to absorb variable power [5] - The ongoing commissioning of new units and the scale effects of renewable energy are expected to accumulate energy for the transition, positioning the company advantageously in the energy transformation landscape [5]