ZGXT(SZ:000831) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-12 14:01Core Insights - The core conclusion of the meeting is that China's dominant position in rare earth reserves and refining processes is unlikely to be challenged in the short term [1] Supply Side - China currently contributes 60-70% of global rare earth production, with a critical role in the refining and separation stage, accounting for approximately 90% of global capacity and being at least 20 years ahead in technology compared to overseas [3] - The cost advantage is significant, with China's refining and separation costs being only one-third of those of foreign counterparts, creating a "technology + cost" dual barrier that makes global rare earth supply highly dependent on China [3] Demand Side - The demand for rare earths is driven by three main sectors: electric vehicles, wind power, and robotics [4] - Each electric vehicle requires 3.5 kg of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), while each wind turbine requires 600 kg of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets [4] - The price forecast for NdPr oxide is expected to remain between 600,000 - 700,000 yuan per ton (approximately 80-95 USD per kg) by 2028, with heavy rare earths like dysprosium priced around 330 USD per kg and terbium at 1,000 USD per kg, indicating strong upward momentum [4] Overseas Projects - Despite attempts by overseas companies to break China's dominance in the rare earth sector, challenges such as high costs, limited scale, and environmental pressures make it difficult to disrupt China's position in the short term [5] - MP Materials, a U.S. strategic project, faces commercial viability concerns, with refining costs at least 40% higher than China's and a current scale of only 1,000 tons, far below the 10,000-ton target [6] - Lynas, an Australian project, is considered competitive without subsidies but still faces environmental compliance pressures and remains reliant on China for heavy rare earth supply [7] - The conclusion emphasizes that the reliance on heavy rare earths from China is unlikely to change in the short term due to the immaturity of overseas mining and refining technologies and high costs [8] Recycling and Alternative Technologies - China is rapidly building a closed-loop recycling system for rare earths, currently accounting for 60% of global rare earth recycling volume, with a recovery rate of 90-95% [10] - By 2028, recycled rare earths are expected to meet about 35% of global supply demand, effectively alleviating pressure on primary mining [10] - In contrast, the U.S. and Europe lag in recycling technology and face high environmental costs, resulting in slower progress in their recycling industries [10] - Concerns regarding alternative materials remain, as they are still in the research and development phase and are unlikely to pose a significant threat to rare earth demand within the next decade [11]