Northeast Securities(SZ:000686) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-13 06:23Group 1 - The report from Northeast Securities analyzes the causes of the 1970s gold bull market and draws parallels to the current market conditions, highlighting the loosening of fiscal and monetary discipline in the U.S. as a key factor [1][2][24] - The 1970s gold bull market unfolded in five stages, starting with a prelude in 1968-1969, followed by a first surge from 1970-1974, a pause in 1975-1976, a second surge from 1977-1979, and concluding with the market's end in 1980 [1][24] - The report suggests that if U.S. fiscal and monetary expansion leads to renewed inflation, and if the Federal Reserve lacks the courage to raise interest rates, it could trigger a new gold bull market [2][24] Group 2 - Current similarities with the 1970s include high fiscal deficits and debt levels, as well as potential challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could lead to an upward pressure on gold prices [2][24] - The report notes that the current gold buying landscape is more diversified, with significant participation from emerging market central banks and strong demand from Asian investors, contrasting with the more limited involvement of Western investors [2][26] - The development of AI could impact the long-term value of gold; if AI progresses slowly, traditional fiscal and monetary stimulus methods may continue to support gold's value [30]