“雷声大雨点小”！特朗普“关税战”影响远小于“理论水平”，关键原因是“豁免”

Core Insights - The actual impact of the trade war on the US economy is significantly less severe than commonly perceived, with the effective tariff rate estimated at only 9%-10%, compared to a theoretical rate of about 18% [1][2] - The lower-than-expected tariff impact is primarily due to policy exemptions rather than transshipment practices, indicating a deliberate choice by policymakers [1][3] Group 1: Tariff Rates and Their Implications - The theoretical effective tariff rate based on announced tariffs is estimated to be 17%-18%, the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, while the actual effective rate is around 10% [2] - The discrepancy between theoretical and actual tariff rates suggests that the trade war's real effects are not as alarming as they appear [2] Group 2: Factors Mitigating Tariff Impact - Policy exemptions (Carveouts) are identified as a key reason for the lower effective tariff rate, with a significant number of exemption applications approved historically [4] - Transshipment activities, while present, have a limited effect on reducing overall tariff rates, contributing only about 1 percentage point to the effective rate reduction [4] Group 3: Future Risks and Market Reactions - US companies have built up significant inventory buffers prior to the implementation of tariffs, which are now nearing depletion, potentially leading to increased inflation in the coming months [5] - Evidence supporting the notion that companies are absorbing tariff costs by compressing profits is limited, as profit margins for the S&P 500 remain stable [6]