晶圆代工，分化加剧

Core Insights - The semiconductor foundry industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with TSMC dominating the market, capturing 70.2% of global market share in Q2 2025, and achieving a revenue of $30.239 billion, marking an 18.5% quarter-over-quarter increase [1][2][5] - TSMC's success is attributed to its advanced process technologies (3nm, 5nm) and unique packaging solutions, which have positioned it as a critical player in the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) sectors [5][9][11] - Other foundries, such as Samsung, SMIC, and UMC, are facing challenges in maintaining market share and profitability, with Samsung's revenue at $3.159 billion and a market share of 7.3%, while SMIC's revenue declined slightly to $2.209 billion [2][6][12] Industry Overview - The top ten foundries collectively generated $41.718 billion in revenue in Q2 2025, reflecting a 14.6% increase from the previous quarter, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor cycle [2][4] - TSMC's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached $55.6 billion, with a gross margin of 58.7% and a net profit of $24 billion, showcasing its strong financial performance compared to its competitors [5][19] - The foundry landscape is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" dynamic, where TSMC leads while other firms like UMC and GlobalFoundries maintain stability through specialized processes [4][5][6] Trends and Challenges - The industry is witnessing three major trends: AI-driven demand, structural recovery in mature processes, and geopolitical reshaping of global supply chains [8][13] - AI and HPC demand have intensified the focus on advanced packaging, with TSMC being the only supplier capable of large-scale, high-yield CoWoS packaging, which is critical for AI chip production [9][16] - Mature process nodes are undergoing a recovery phase after significant inventory adjustments, with companies like UMC and VIS reporting improved margins due to rising demand in consumer electronics and automotive sectors [12][13] Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 will be pivotal, with TSMC expanding its packaging capacity and Samsung betting on its 2nm technology to regain competitiveness [15][17] - SMIC and other Chinese foundries need to enhance their product mix and manage depreciation pressures to improve profitability, while companies like Huahong and PSMC face challenges in maintaining financial stability [17][18] - The evolving landscape suggests that future winners will be those who can provide comprehensive system solutions rather than just excel in individual technologies [19]