Core Viewpoint - China Aircraft Leasing (01848) maintains its 25-year profit forecast while introducing a profit estimate of HKD 475 million for 2026, with a target price increase of 22% to HKD 5.0, reflecting a strong market outlook and a recommendation to outperform the industry [1]. Company Status - The company reported a 7% year-on-year increase in profit to HKD 140 million for the first half of 2025, driven by cost improvements and significant contributions from aircraft disposals. The ongoing high market demand and the company's global strategy suggest a positive long-term profit recovery [2]. Mid-term Growth Drivers - Revenue Side: - Leasing revenue decreased by 14.1% year-on-year to HKD 1.91 billion, accounting for 79% of total revenue, primarily due to aircraft disposals. The company plans to deliver 15 new aircraft in the second half of the year while selling 6-10 aircraft, which is expected to support rental income [3]. - Net income from aircraft transactions surged by 1060.2% year-on-year to HKD 290 million, corresponding to the sale of 19 aircraft, indicating a strong asset value in a high-demand market [3]. - Cost Side: - The company reduced interest-bearing liabilities by 11.0% year-on-year, and interest expenses fell by 17.6% to HKD 1.1 billion, leading to a decrease in leverage from 9.1x at the end of 2024 to 8.4x. The focus on diversified financing and debt reduction is expected to enhance profitability [3]. Long-term Support Factors - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company had a fleet of 181 aircraft, with 151 owned and 30 managed. The order book stands at 114 aircraft, providing a solid foundation for future growth amid tightening supply chains. The company is also expanding its global customer base, with 33% of aircraft leased to overseas airlines, reinforcing its growth potential [4].
中金：维持中国飞机租赁跑赢行业评级 升目标价至5港元