研报掘金丨长江证券：维持泸州老窖“买入”评级，去库存效果较好，未来有望轻装上阵

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao's net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 is 7.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.54% [1] - The company is experiencing pressure from demand fluctuations, but inventory reduction efforts are showing positive results [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is 3.07 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor in H1 2025 is 15.048 billion yuan, a decline of 1.09% year-on-year [1] - Sales volume for H1 2025 is 24,100 tons, an increase of 13.33% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price is 623,900 yuan per ton, down 12.72% year-on-year [1] Inventory Management - The company has effectively reduced inventory, which is expected to improve operational efficiency moving forward [1] - The company is assisting distributors in inventory clearance, with current efforts yielding relatively good results [1] Market Outlook - The industry is facing certain pressures due to demand fluctuations, but historical trends suggest that lowering growth expectations and maintaining channel health can alleviate inventory cycle volatility [1] - The company's dual-driven strategy and the gradual recovery of mid-tier products are expected to continue [1] Earnings Forecast - The estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 8.44 yuan and 8.86 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17 and 16 times [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [1]