JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-16 04:19Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the optimistic expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut have significantly driven up both the U.S. stock and bond markets, but the outcome of the upcoming meeting may serve as a critical turning point, potentially leading to new market volatility if the motivations behind the decision are questioned [1][3]. - Recent market data indicates that due to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, investors are betting on a 25 basis point rate cut this month, with expectations continuing into next year. This has led to a notable decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from nearly 5% in late May to around 4% [3][4]. - The total market capitalization of the stock market has increased by approximately $14 trillion since the end of last year, with traditional "60/40" stock-bond allocation strategies yielding substantial returns [3]. Group 2 - David Kelly expresses concerns regarding the core issue of the Federal Reserve's "motivation" for rate cuts, suggesting that if the decision is perceived as yielding to certain pressures rather than being based on independent economic judgment, it could introduce new uncertainties for the U.S. financial markets and the dollar [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the independence and transparency of monetary policy decisions are crucial for maintaining market confidence, and any actions that lead market participants to doubt this independence could trigger new volatility [4]. - Other institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Oppenheimer Asset Management, share similar concerns, indicating that the record market rally may pause as the focus shifts from liquidity expectations to a reassessment of economic fundamentals [4].