美联储 9 月大概率降息，年内再降 50BP，A 股要沾光？

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull consolidation," with trading volume decreasing from nearly 3 trillion to 2.3 trillion, but this does not indicate a withdrawal of funds as margin trading volume remains stable at 11.5% and net inflow has surged to 51.8 billion, indicating that individual investors are still entering the market [1] - Nvidia has launched the Rubin CPX GPU to address massive computing power demands, with Q2 revenue reaching 46.7 billion USD and data center revenue increasing by 56% year-on-year, while domestic companies like Tencent and Alibaba are also increasing their capital expenditures related to computing power [2][4] - The core of the market's resilience during this consolidation phase is the sustained demand for AI computing power, with Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue soaring by 55% and a significant 300 billion USD computing power agreement signed with OpenAI, highlighting substantial investments in this sector [4] Group 2 - The August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, but this is attributed to a high base effect from last year's pork prices, not a collapse in consumer spending; the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating stable domestic demand [5] - The PPI has ended a consecutive eight-month decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, showing improvement in upstream industries like coal, oil, steel, and non-ferrous metals, which is a positive sign for industrial profit margins [5] - Recent U.S. economic data, including a significant downward revision of non-farm employment and a surprising drop in PPI, has set the stage for expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to increased global liquidity and a favorable environment for investment in the Chinese A-share market [7] Group 3 - The current A-share slow bull market is supported by a favorable funding environment, improving core CPI and PPI, and potential assistance from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, alongside the ongoing strength in AI computing power [9] - The market's current state is not a "house of cards," as the combination of capital inflows, fundamental improvements, and external support creates a solid foundation for continued growth, making the current consolidation phase an opportunity to identify quality stocks [9]