Apple(US:AAPL) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-16 13:42Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is poised to become the largest contributor to Apple's "Apple Tax" as the company faces regulatory challenges globally, while other regions like the US and EU have begun to implement lower or zero commission rates for third-party payments [2][5][12]. Group 1: Apple's Financial Performance - Apple's total revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2025 reached $94.04 billion, marking the strongest quarterly revenue growth since December 2021 [2]. - The services segment, which includes iCloud, Apple Music, and the App Store, generated $27.42 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations [2]. - Although services account for only 25.6% of total revenue, they contribute 41% to gross margin, with a gross margin of 75.5%, far surpassing the hardware business's 37% [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Challenges - Apple's "Apple Tax," a commission on digital goods and services sold through the App Store, is facing global scrutiny, with antitrust lawsuits initiated by the US Department of Justice and regulatory actions in over 15 countries [3][4]. - The company has begun to lower its commission rates in the US and EU, moving towards a model with zero or low commissions for third-party payments [4][6]. - In 2025, the EU fined Apple €500 million for restricting developers from directing users to third-party payment options, marking a significant regulatory setback [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics in China - In 2024, China's App Store ecosystem is projected to generate $23 billion in sales of digital goods and services, making it the second-largest market globally, following the US [5][12]. - The estimated "Apple Tax" contribution from China in 2024 is $6.44 billion, second only to the US's $14.8 billion, indicating a growing financial burden on Chinese developers [14]. - The "Apple Tax" in China represents 10% of Apple's revenue in the region, compared to 8.8% in the US and 4.6% in Europe, highlighting China's relatively higher tax burden [14]. Group 4: Future Projections - By 2025, the "Apple Tax" from China is expected to reach $7.2 billion, with projections of $8.1 billion in 2026 and $9 billion in 2027, indicating a steady increase in contributions [17]. - If current trends continue, China could surpass the US and Europe in "Apple Tax" contributions by 2026, driven by a higher tax rate and significant market size [17]. Group 5: Legal Actions and Consumer Sentiment - Chinese consumers and small developers have begun to challenge Apple's practices, with ongoing antitrust lawsuits aimed at the company's App Store policies [17][18]. - A notable case involved a consumer lawsuit against Apple, which was initially dismissed but is currently under appeal, reflecting growing discontent with the "Apple Tax" [18][19].