摩根大通：今夜美联储存在三个尾部风险！

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley outlines three tail risks for the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the potential outcomes and their implications for the market [2][3]. Interest Rate Predictions - Rate Hike (1%): The first tail risk has a near-zero probability but is not entirely ruled out. A continuous rise in core CPI over three months may lead the Fed to remain cautious, although it is not expected to pose a real threat, especially if tariff attitudes soften [2]. - Maintain Rate (4%): The likelihood of maintaining the current rate is low, with Powell's comments at Jackson Hole suggesting that keeping rates unchanged could have a counterproductive effect. The key factor is whether Powell leans hawkish or dovish [3]. - Hawkish Rate Cut of 25 Basis Points (40%): If the Fed perceives inflation as temporary and the labor market does not pose immediate risks to the economy, there may be room for a gradual 25 basis point cut, which could erase some of the previous gains in the stock market [3]. - Dovish Rate Cut of 25 Basis Points (47.5%): This scenario suggests a more significant likelihood of a 25 basis point cut if inflation remains controlled and non-farm payrolls show weakness. Market interpretation of this move could introduce new uncertainties [3]. - Rate Cut of 50 Basis Points (7.5%): This extreme scenario could lead to a sell-off in the stock market if the Fed is perceived as needing to catch up with deteriorating employment conditions, particularly if non-farm payrolls turn negative [3].