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实地考察宁德时代后,大摩的结论:核心竞争力太强

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that CATL's self-developed manufacturing lines exhibit high complexity and intelligence, supported by advanced molecular-level material science, which creates high barriers to entry and results in quality premiums and cost competitiveness [1][3] - The factory has a production capacity of 2.2 million battery cells per day, with over 6,800 real-time quality control points, processing 340,000 data transactions per second, establishing it as a smart factory [1][3] - CATL's current capacity utilization exceeds 90%, and the company is constructing new capacity of 250 GWh, aiming for a total capacity of 1 TWh by next year [1][4] Group 2 - In the energy storage system (ESS) sector, CATL's products can provide approximately a 14% internal rate of return (IRR) premium in the global market and a 7-8% premium in the Chinese market, indicating significant potential in this area [1][6] - The company plans to expand its production capacity to 800 GWh by 2025 and 1 TWh by 2026, which is expected to meet future order demands [5] - CATL's overseas capacity expansion is on track, with projects in Hungary and Indonesia set to commence production in 2026, and a project in Spain planned for 2027 [5] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that CATL's manufacturing efficiency sets a high standard, with a focus on cost advantages and advanced material science, making it difficult for competitors to replicate its production lines due to their complexity [3] - The company is expected to achieve small-scale production of solid-state batteries by 2027, with a positive outlook on electric vehicle and energy storage system deployments for the coming year [5] - CATL plans to enhance its energy storage product structure in the coming years, focusing on higher-margin AC system products as its distribution capabilities improve [7]