国信证券：出行链结构性景气 双节叠加政策红利提振预期

Core Viewpoint - The travel chain is showing structural highlights, particularly among strong channel and brand companies, with expectations for improvement driven by the National Day holiday and policy support [1][8]. Industry Review and Outlook - The experience economy and value-for-money consumption coexist, with service consumption policies being strengthened, AI iteration, and expansion into overseas and lower-tier markets creating growth opportunities [2]. - Four key characteristics of the travel chain: 1) Overall stable consumer market with a rising share of service consumption and a trend towards rational spending [2]. 2) Strong brands and channels are gaining market share, with online penetration in the hotel sector outpacing the industry [2]. 3) Clear differentiation among platforms, with leading companies focusing on building a closed-loop traffic ecosystem and improving monetization [2]. 4) Leading OTA and hotel companies are emphasizing increased cash dividends [2]. Segment Summary - The travel chain's overall revenue in Q2 2025 increased by 9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 65% [3]. - OTA and ride-hailing sectors are performing well, with stable market conditions leading to strong revenue realization [3]. - The hotel sector is showing improved performance, particularly for strong brand companies like Atour, with expectations for gradual stabilization in supply and demand [6]. Company Performance - Ctrip's Q2 revenue exceeded expectations, driven by growth in domestic hotel nights, while international business also saw over 16% growth for two consecutive quarters [4]. - Tongcheng's domestic hotel and flight business is expanding steadily, benefiting from outbound travel [4]. - The ride-hailing industry is experiencing improved profitability, with companies like Cao Cao Travel leveraging their own vehicle fleets for efficiency [5]. Investment Recommendations - The travel chain presents structural highlights, with strong channel and brand companies expected to benefit from upcoming holidays and policy support [8]. - Recommended companies for investment include Ctrip Group-S, Atour, and Tongcheng Travel among others [8].