浙商证券：产能置换约束供给 储备产能释放弹性 维持煤炭行业“看好”评级

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to gradually balance supply and demand, with coal prices steadily rising, maintaining an "optimistic" rating for the industry under current policies [1] Group 1: Capacity Replacement Policy - The capacity replacement policy is a core tool for supply-side structural reform, aiming to "control total volume and optimize stock" by ensuring that new advanced capacity is built while eliminating outdated capacity [2] - The policy utilizes market and legal means to limit total capacity while improving capacity quality, facilitating the transition of overcapacity industries to high-quality development [2] Group 2: Historical Context - During the supply-side structural reform period (2016-2020), coal production exceeded demand, leading to tighter capacity allocation policies and the implementation of reduction replacement policies [3] - The government provided financial incentives for exiting coal mines to reduce capacity replacement ratios and required that the capacity of closed mines be at least 120% of the new mines being built [3] Group 3: Current Capacity Management - In the current production increase and supply guarantee period (2021-2025), the government emphasizes the need for coal production capacity to be quickly realized while adhering to the principles of "reduction replacement" or "equal replacement" [4] - A commitment system for capacity replacement has been established, where companies must fulfill their commitments or face penalties, including being listed as untrustworthy and having their capacity approvals revoked [5] Group 4: Capacity Constraints - Based on the 2015 capacity baseline and the "13th Five-Year Plan" exit situation, the legal capacity limits are estimated to be 4.7, 4.5, and 4.4 billion tons per year under strict reduction replacement requirements, which is lower than the projected production of 4.76 billion tons in 2024 [6] - If the capacity replacement policy is strictly enforced, future production reductions will be necessary, and the government is addressing capacity release limitations through a coal capacity reserve system [6]