Lilly(US:LLY) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-18 07:00Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 receptor agonist Orforglipron (Orfor) for obesity treatment, following the release of Phase III clinical trial data, with a target price of $1028 and an "overweight" rating [1][2]. Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - The ATTAIN-1 trial demonstrated Orfor's effectiveness in weight loss, cardiovascular metabolic improvements, and safety across multiple dimensions [1]. - Weight loss plateaued between weeks 48 to 72 across all three dosage groups, with results comparable to the Phase II trial at 36 weeks, potentially due to trial design and population differences [1][2]. - In comparison, Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide 25mg also showed a weight loss plateau between weeks 48 to 64, with a male population percentage of approximately 24% [1]. Group 2: Metabolic and Safety Improvements - Orfor significantly improved multiple cardiovascular metabolic risk factors, including waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, non-HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides, along with other metabolic indicators [2]. - In terms of body composition, 73.1% of weight loss was attributed to fat reduction, while 26.9% was from lean body mass loss [2]. - Safety assessments indicated that Orfor's adverse reactions were consistent with other GLP-1 medications, primarily mild to moderate gastrointestinal events, with no significant drug-related liver injury detected [2]. Group 3: Market Potential - Orfor is particularly suitable for individuals with a lower BMI (<35) and those preferring oral therapies or lacking access to injectable medications, including patients in low to middle-income countries [2]. - The successful market entry of Orfor, along with the expansion of another weight loss drug, tirzepatide, and accelerated supply of auto-injectors, could present upside risks [2].