Micron Technology(US:MU) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-18 09:21Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has issued a report on Micron Technology (MU.US), highlighting the company's controversial status in the memory sector, with a target price of $135 and an "Equal-weight" rating, indicating a balanced risk-return profile despite ongoing market discussions about its performance and product pricing dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for mobile phones and personal computers (PCs) is in line with expectations, with particularly strong demand from general servers and a booming interest in artificial intelligence (AI) [2] - DDR5 prices are expected to rise significantly due to strong demand from hyperscale enterprises, with concerns about supply tightness extending into the first half of 2026 [2] - DDR4 prices have surged in Q4, but this has minimal impact on Micron as DDR4 contributes a negligible portion to its revenue [2] Group 2: Product Pricing Trends - NAND prices are also showing strong performance in Q4, driven by accelerated demand for enterprise solid-state drives (SSDs) and concerns about supply for 2026 [2] - The report indicates that the actual price increases for NAND may exceed initial model predictions, although specific figures are not yet available [2] Group 3: HBM Market Insights - There is some debate about whether there is an oversupply in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market, but Morgan Stanley suggests that the situation is exaggerated [3] - The forecast for the HBM market size is significantly larger than implied processor revenues, with estimates indicating that HBM could account for up to 80% of sales costs in 2025 [4] - Micron aims to capture 20%-24% of the overall DRAM market share, with expectations of achieving this even under optimistic market size forecasts [5] Group 4: HBM4 Developments - HBM4 is expected to debut in the second half of 2026 alongside NVIDIA's Rubin and AMD systems, with Micron confident in its position despite competitive pressures from other manufacturers [6] - There are concerns regarding Micron's ability to meet the high-speed interface requirements set by NVIDIA, which may affect its competitive standing [6]