股指冲高回落成交再超三万亿，外资大行维持A股和H股“超配”

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant trading volume, with a total turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity and investor confidence despite a slight decline in major indices [2][3]. Market Performance - On September 18, the A-share indices saw a high of 3899.96 points before closing lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.15% to 3831.66 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.06% to 13075.66 points, and the ChiNext down 1.64% to 3095.85 points [2]. - The total trading volume reached 31,666 billion yuan, marking the fourth highest in A-share history, with a notable increase of 7,636 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the market's pullback, there remains a strong buying interest, suggesting that bullish sentiment has not been completely diminished [3]. - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit down was low, indicating that core stocks are still attracting capital [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the recent market fluctuations do not signify the end of the bullish trend, with new positive factors emerging, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a rebound in public fund issuance [3]. - Goldman Sachs maintains an "overweight" rating on A-shares and H-shares, predicting an 8% and 3% upside respectively over the next 12 months, and encourages investors to buy on dips [4]. Institutional Investment Trends - Domestic public funds have significantly increased their equity exposure, with cash ratios at a five-year low, while insurance companies have raised their stock holdings by 26% this year [5]. - Foreign investment in A-shares has reached a cyclical high, with hedge funds recording the highest monthly inflow in recent years [5]. Potential for Future Growth - There is substantial potential for increased institutional investment in the Chinese stock market, as current allocations to equities are significantly lower than in developed and emerging markets [6]. - If the institutional holding ratio in A-shares were to rise to the average levels of emerging or developed markets, it could lead to an influx of 14 trillion to 30 trillion yuan into the market [6].