对多晶硅价格预期过高！高盛“变脸”看空光伏

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the market's expectations for the photovoltaic industry, particularly regarding polysilicon prices, are "overly optimistic" [1][2] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Pricing - Since July 1, the average stock price of covered photovoltaic stocks has increased by 40%, reflecting market expectations of polysilicon prices reaching 60 yuan per kilogram [1] - The report indicates a significant disconnect between current market sentiment and the industry's fundamentals, with short-term price increases misinterpreted as long-term trends [2] - The "anti-involution" movement in the industry has led to a 40% increase in polysilicon prices from July to August, but this is not sustainable given the weak demand and high inventory levels [2] Group 2: Demand and Inventory Concerns - Global component demand has sharply declined in June and July, with expectations of continued weakness until 2026 [2] - The industry is facing increasing inventory pressure, particularly in the polysilicon segment, which complicates the transmission of upstream price increases to the downstream component prices [2] Group 3: Cost Reduction Dynamics - The market has overlooked the rapid cost reduction processes of leading companies, which are optimizing production capacities and adopting cost-saving technologies [3] - Cash costs for major players in the supply chain are expected to decrease by 10% to 14% from Q2 2025 to 2026, with polysilicon cash costs potentially dropping to 25 yuan per kilogram [3] - In a weak demand environment, leading companies are incentivized to lower prices to gain market share rather than maintain high prices [3] Group 4: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has significantly lowered its earnings expectations for the photovoltaic industry, with EBITDA forecasts averaging 45% below market consensus [5] - The firm has adjusted EBITDA predictions for downstream participants in the 2025-2030 period, with an average reduction of 15% [5] - Although EBITDA forecasts for polysilicon have been raised for 2025-2027 due to short-term profit expansion, long-term forecasts for 2028-2030 have been downgraded [5]