海底捞(6862.HK)：8月运营持续改善 翻台率同比小幅提升

Core Viewpoint - Haidilao's operations showed continued marginal improvement in August, with a slight increase in table turnover rate year-on-year, and expectations for gradual operational improvement in the second half of 2025 due to low comparative base in 2024 [1][2][3] Operational Performance - In August, customer traffic significantly improved starting from July's summer season, with table turnover rate increasing month-on-month from July and showing a slight year-on-year increase compared to July's flat performance [2] - Haidilao launched various themed stores in August, such as premium stores and family-themed stores, to enhance customer experience and attract more visitors [2] - The first innovative concept store opened in Beijing in August, featuring optimized layout and modular design to improve efficiency and service speed [2] - In August, Haidilao opened 2 new direct stores and closed 4, while also opening 2 new Yanhui barbecue stores [2] Financial Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenue growth of 3.3%/3.3%/3.1% for 2025-2027, reaching 441.5/455.9/470.0 billion [4] - Expected net profit growth for the same period is 2.7%/3.0%/2.9%, reaching 48.4/49.8/51.2 billion [4] - The company continues to offer a target price of HKD 20.40, corresponding to a 21 times P/E for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 53% from the current stock price [4] Dividend and Cash Position - The company emphasizes a shift in investment logic from "earning performance money" to "earning dividend money," with a high dividend payout ratio of 95% in the first half of 2025 [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the company had cash reserves of 6 billion and financial products worth 5.3 billion, with a net cash position of 9.2 billion, indicating strong liquidity [3]