Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains the view that the Federal Reserve's decision to restart rate cuts in September does not indicate the beginning of a continuous rate-cutting cycle [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Outlook - The neutral interest rate has risen to around 3%, leaving only 4-5 potential rate cuts available [1] - Despite market expectations for rate cuts in October and December, caution is advised regarding these predictions due to the resilience of the U.S. economy and significant short-term inflation risks [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September FOMC meeting, which is viewed as a typical preemptive rate cut [1] - The current labor market, while showing signs of slowing, remains manageable, and the restrictive nature of policy rates has significantly eased compared to the previous year [1] Labor Market Dynamics - The cooling of employment is primarily attributed to immigration policy restrictions, leading to a weak supply-demand balance, with low unemployment reflecting a "weak equilibrium" [1] - A significant rate cut is unlikely to result in a rapid improvement in the labor market [1]
交银国际：美联储年内降息可能仅有一次 且不降息的情形仍存