Core Viewpoint - Barclays is optimistic about Micron's NAND business short-term rebound and long-term growth in HBM, raising its target price to $175 [1] NAND Business Outlook - Barclays has raised its expectations for Micron's NAND flash business, with Q4 revenue projected to increase from $2.28 billion to $2.32 billion, reflecting an 8% quarter-over-quarter growth driven by improved average selling prices [4] - For Q1, NAND revenue expectations have been significantly raised to $2.56 billion, a 10% quarter-over-quarter increase, surpassing previous expectations of $2.25 billion [4] - The growth is characterized as "temporary," with analysts noting that the hard disk drive market is much larger than the flash data center market, indicating that most future growth will still rely on hard drive technology [4] HBM Market Growth - Barclays believes this quarter is a key moment for Micron to indicate potential increases in HBM market share for the next year, possibly supported by more aggressive capital expenditure guidance [5] - Micron's HBM market share has steadily increased from 6% in Q2 2024 to 19% in Q2 2025, while competitors like SK Hynix and Samsung have seen fluctuations in their market shares [5] Financial Projections - Barclays has raised Micron's financial forecasts, with FY2025 revenue and EPS expectations adjusted from $40.93 billion/$9.50 to $41.3 billion/$9.67, and FY2026 from $49.06 billion/$12.13 to $50.82 billion/$13.17 [8] - The new target price of $175 is based on a 13.3x multiple of the 2026 EPS of $13.17, reflecting an improvement in supply-demand and pricing environments [8] Capital Expenditure - Barclays expects Micron to maintain capital expenditures at $14 billion this year, with potential increases to $16 billion next year primarily for DRAM capacity expansion to meet HBM demand [9]
9月来涨超50%,下周美光的财报,市场需要“强劲的HBM叙事”