华友钴业，起飞了

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Huayou Cobalt's stock price may indicate a significant reversal in the cyclical trend of the industry, following a period of decline [2][6]. Company Overview - Huayou Cobalt, established in 2002 and headquartered in Zhejiang, initially focused on cobalt and copper mining, later expanding into lithium battery materials and significant investments in nickel resources in Indonesia and lithium resources in Africa [2]. - As of 2024, the company's revenue composition includes cobalt (6%), copper (9%), nickel (35%), lithium (5%), ternary precursors (11%), and ternary cathode materials (14%) [2]. - Nickel contributes the highest gross margin at 52%, while traditional businesses like cobalt and copper account for lower margins [2]. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, Huayou Cobalt's revenue grew from 21.2 billion to 60.9 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 30% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 1.165 billion to 4.155 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 37.4% [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, and a net profit of 2.71 billion yuan, up 62.3% year-on-year [4]. Market Dynamics - The cobalt market has experienced significant price fluctuations over the past two decades, with three major bull markets driven by factors such as the rise of electric vehicles [7]. - Cobalt prices fell to a low of 9.95 USD/pound in February 2025 but began to recover due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [7][8]. - The DRC, which accounts for 78% of global cobalt supply, has implemented export bans that have significantly reduced global supply, leading to a surge in domestic cobalt prices [11][12]. Nickel Market Insights - Indonesia's nickel production has rapidly expanded, with output increasing from 770,000 tons in 2022 to 1.6 million tons in 2024, contributing to a global oversupply [12]. - However, long-term demand for nickel is expected to rise significantly due to the anticipated growth of solid-state batteries, which could lead to a supply-demand imbalance by 2027 [13]. - Huayou Cobalt has strategically invested in Indonesian nickel resources since 2018, with nickel-related revenue growing from 250 million to 21.3 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [13]. Investment Outlook - The market is expected to shift from technology stocks to cyclical and consumer sectors, which may benefit Huayou Cobalt's valuation recovery [14]. - The company's current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.24 is significantly lower than the median of 4.69 over the past decade, suggesting potential for valuation improvement [6].