KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-21 12:21Core Viewpoint - The production cost of Moutai is significantly low compared to its market price, leading to high profit margins for the company and its distributors [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - Moutai's total operating cost for 46,400 tons of Moutai series liquor is 8.662 billion yuan, resulting in a production cost of approximately 87.89 yuan per bottle [1][3]. - The sales revenue for Moutai liquor reached approximately 145.93 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 94.06% [5]. Market Dynamics - The market price of Moutai has seen a decline, dropping from a peak of around 4,000 yuan to approximately 1,800 yuan [10][20]. - The decline in market price is attributed to changes in supply and demand dynamics, with increased direct sales from the company reducing reliance on distributors [27][29]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Moutai's production has increased from 39,300 tons in 2016 to 56,300 tons in 2024, contributing to a surplus in supply [36]. - Social inventory of Moutai is estimated to be equivalent to 14 to 15 months of sales, exacerbating the supply issue [39]. Economic Impact - Moutai contributes significantly to the local economy, with its annual revenue of 174.1 billion yuan accounting for 7.68% of Guizhou's GDP [8]. - The company has a substantial impact on employment, supporting numerous distributors and shareholders [6][8]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the overall positive performance of the stock market, Moutai's stock price has been declining, reflecting investor concerns about the future of the liquor industry [12][45]. - The decrease in stock holdings among funds indicates a lack of confidence in Moutai's growth prospects amid declining industry performance [47][54]. Consumer Behavior - Moutai is primarily consumed in business settings and as gifts, with 90% of its consumption occurring in these contexts [58]. - The perception of Moutai as a high-quality product remains strong, but its market dynamics are influenced by broader economic conditions and consumer preferences [76][81].