Nvidia(US:NVDA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-22 01:30Core Viewpoint - The analysis focuses on the potential risks and business realities of Moore Threads as it approaches its IPO, highlighting its financial performance, strategic shifts, and market challenges [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Moore Threads plans to raise 8 billion yuan to support its unprofitable operations, reporting a revenue of 702 million yuan in the first half of 2025, which exceeds the total revenue of the past three years, but still incurred a loss of 271 million yuan, leading to a cumulative loss of 1.478 billion yuan [6]. - The company achieved a remarkable turnaround in gross margin from -70.08% in 2022 to 70.71% in 2024, indicating a fundamental shift in its strategic direction [8][9]. Group 2: Ownership Structure - The ownership structure of Moore Threads is characterized by a unique phenomenon of "high dispersion and high concentration," with no single shareholder holding more than 30% of the shares, while founder Zhang Jianzhong controls 36.36% through various means [6][8]. - The stability of this structure is questioned due to a joint action agreement with other parties that could lead to control instability if disagreements arise [8]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Initially targeting both consumer and enterprise GPU markets, the company faced significant challenges and shifted focus to the high-margin B-end market, particularly in AI computing and professional graphics acceleration, where the gross margin for AI computing products reached 73.12% in 2024 [10][12]. - Despite the improvement in gross margins, the company is now heavily reliant on large B-end clients, raising concerns about the stability and sustainability of these customer relationships [12][13]. Group 4: Market Position and Competition - As of June 30, 2025, Moore Threads is negotiating approximately 2 billion yuan in expected orders, but these orders lack legal binding, raising questions about their reliability [13][14]. - The company holds less than 1% market share in its respective segments, which complicates its ability to secure large orders [14]. Group 5: Technological Challenges - Moore Threads has launched four generations of GPU architectures, but faces significant competition from Nvidia, which holds an 88% market share in the global GPU market [17][18]. - The compatibility of its MUSA architecture with existing GPU applications is uncertain due to Nvidia's restrictions on CUDA compatibility, posing a risk to its competitive strategy [18]. Group 6: Profitability and Government Support - Management forecasts profitability by 2027, but this projection relies heavily on government subsidies, indicating weak self-sustaining capabilities [19][20]. - The overall gross margin is expected to decline from 2025 to 2027, contrary to typical trends in technology firms, suggesting concerns about future market competition [21]. Group 7: Human Resources and R&D Efficiency - Moore Threads is a talent-intensive company with 77.81% of its 1,122 employees in R&D roles, but it reported low revenue per employee at 389,400 yuan and a loss per employee of 132,500 yuan, indicating inefficiencies [22][23]. - The company has invested 3.81 billion yuan in R&D, which is 626.03% of its total revenue, raising questions about the sustainability of such high investment levels [23]. Group 8: Risks from Strategic Investors - The presence of strategic investors like Tencent and China Mobile may lead to potential related-party transaction issues, impacting the company's independence in customer acquisition [27][28]. - Maintaining fair and independent business relations with these strategic investors post-IPO will be a focal point for regulators and investors [28][29].