BYD(HK:01211) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-22 11:53Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett has completely divested his shares in BYD, marking the end of an investment era for Berkshire Hathaway in the company, which raises questions about BYD's future performance in the market [2][10][17]. Investment and Financial Performance - Berkshire Hathaway initially purchased 225 million shares of BYD at a cost of $232 million, averaging $1.03 per share, equivalent to approximately HKD 8.01 [10]. - The fair value of BYD investments held by Berkshire Energy surged from the second half of 2020, driven by BYD's stock price increase, which was influenced by the broader market conditions and the rise of the new energy vehicle sector [4][8]. - BYD's stock price experienced a significant leap in 2022 after the company ceased production of fuel vehicles and focused entirely on new energy vehicles, indicating a strong market shift [8][9]. Market Competition and Sales Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, BYD maintained its position as the top-selling electric vehicle manufacturer in China, with cumulative sales of 2.195 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [11][12]. - Despite leading in sales, BYD's growth rate is lower than the overall market and competitors like Geely, which saw a 62.1% increase in sales during the same period [11][12]. - In August 2025, BYD's sales reached 310,000 units, but this represented an 18.3% year-on-year decline, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth amidst increasing competition [12][13]. Industry Outlook and Challenges - The new energy vehicle market in China is projected to face a slowdown as government incentives, such as tax exemptions, are set to expire, which may stabilize the rapid growth seen in recent years [12]. - Competitors like Geely and Changan are aggressively pursuing market share, with Geely's new energy transition yielding significant results [12][13]. - BYD's long accounts payable cycle poses a potential liquidity risk, as the company may struggle to meet short-term financial obligations if payment terms are tightened [15][16]. Financial Metrics and Comparisons - BYD's overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 18.01%, with the automotive segment achieving a gross margin of 20.35%, although there was a decline in the second quarter [14]. - In comparison, other emerging players like Xpeng and Li Auto have shown improved gross margins, indicating a competitive edge in financial performance [14]. - The recent initiative by the China Automobile Association to standardize payment terms could enhance supplier relationships for BYD, but the company must address its high accounts payable turnover days to avoid cash flow issues [14][15]. Conclusion - Buffett's exit from BYD signals a pivotal moment for the company and the broader electric vehicle market, as competition intensifies and the industry transitions from explosive growth to a more differentiated competitive landscape [17]. - The emergence of new players with strong financial health and innovative capabilities suggests a shift in market dynamics, necessitating a reevaluation of investment strategies within the sector [17][18].