LBX(SH:603883) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-22 23:28Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a prolonged downturn, raising concerns about future housing prices amidst increasing income pressure on households [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The price index for newly built residential properties in 70 major cities has decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.7%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of decline [2] - In first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, housing prices are showing signs of fatigue, with some regions experiencing price declines exceeding 10%, reaching the lowest levels in nearly a decade [2] Group 2: Demographic Changes - By the end of 2024, China's population is projected to decrease by approximately 2.21 million, with the birth rate falling to a record low of 5.5‰ [3] - The population of the primary home-buying age group (25 to 45 years) is expected to decline by about 120 million over the next 20 years, leading to a significant drop in housing demand [3] Group 3: Urbanization and Market Challenges - China's urbanization rate has reached 66.5%, nearing developed country levels, but the pace of expansion is slowing [4] - There are nearly 50 million idle residential properties nationwide, with an average absorption period extending to 26 months, far exceeding healthy market standards [4] Group 4: Household Debt and Purchasing Power - As of Q1 2025, the household leverage ratio in China has risen to 64.7%, approaching the internationally recognized warning line [7] - The total household mortgage balance exceeds 38 trillion yuan, with an average mortgage burden of approximately 80,000 yuan per family, significantly constraining purchasing power and willingness to buy [7] Group 5: Local Government and Policy Responses - Despite the declining real estate market, local governments remain heavily reliant on land finance, with land transfer revenue still reaching 3.2 trillion yuan, accounting for about 24% of local fiscal revenue [8] - Over 200 cities have relaxed purchase and loan restrictions, with first-time home loan rates in major cities dropping to around 3.8%, a historical low [8] Group 6: Economic Transition and Income Constraints - In the first half of 2025, the actual growth rate of per capita disposable income for residents was only 2.7%, lower than GDP growth, leading to squeezed purchasing power [10] - Average monthly income in third and fourth-tier cities hovers around 5,000 yuan, creating a severe imbalance with local housing prices [10] Group 7: Employment and Skills Development - The internet economy's golden age has passed, with an average layoff rate of 15% in the internet sector and a 20% drop in starting salaries for fresh graduates compared to three years ago [11] - There is a growing demand for high-skilled talent in emerging fields, with a significant increase in users of vocational training and online education platforms [16] Group 8: Market Outlook and Consumer Behavior - Economists predict that the real estate market will continue to adjust over the next two years, with a potential further decline of 5-10% in housing prices [11] - A survey indicates that over 67% of respondents plan to postpone home purchases and invest more in education and skills, with 78.3% of young people prioritizing career competitiveness over buying a home [13]