Microsoft(US:MSFT) 3 6 Ke·2025-09-23 04:13Core Insights - The era of AGI may lead to unprecedented economic prosperity driven by computational power, but human wages are decoupled from this growth, remaining stagnant despite potential GDP increases [1][30] - A study by Yale scholar Restrepo suggests that labor's share of income will approach zero, with wealth flowing entirely to computational capital, raising questions about the future value of human work [1][11] Economic Dynamics - In traditional economics, wages are linked to skill scarcity, but in an AGI economy, wages will depend on the computational cost to replicate human skills [2][4] - Restrepo categorizes economic activities into bottleneck work and accessory work, indicating that the value of professions will be determined by the computational resources required to simulate them [4][10] Wealth Distribution - As AGI automates bottleneck tasks, labor's contribution to GDP will diminish, with nearly all new wealth directed towards computational capital, akin to land and machinery during the Industrial Revolution [11][15] - Major tech companies are already investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with Microsoft planning to spend approximately $80 billion on AI-driven data centers in fiscal year 2025 [11][13] Labor Market Implications - The labor market may see a shift where the disparity between individuals is determined by proximity to computational resources rather than effort or skill [10][15] - The transition to an AGI-driven economy may exacerbate inequality, as those in positions not yet automated may experience temporary wage spikes, only to face sudden declines once automation is complete [13][15] Future of Work - While AGI may automate many tasks, there will still be a category of accessory work that retains social value, such as caregiving and companionship, though these roles will not drive economic growth [17][22] - The potential for a societal divide exists, where economic growth continues while many individuals remain in low-value roles, relying on emotional labor for their sense of purpose [22][30] Redistribution of Wealth - A critical question arises regarding how to distribute the wealth generated in an AGI economy, as productivity growth will rely on computational resources rather than human labor [23][24] - Possible solutions include universal dividends from computational profits or treating computational resources as public capital, similar to Norway's oil fund model [24][26] Conclusion - The implications of AGI challenge the traditional notion that hard work leads to economic rewards, suggesting a future where human labor is marginalized and the focus shifts to the ownership of computational resources [30][31]