Core Viewpoint - Recent economic growth forecasts for Vietnam have been downgraded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Standard Chartered Bank, citing short-term trade slowdown due to potential new tariffs from the US, while maintaining a stable long-term outlook due to strong foreign investment and global supply chain positioning [1] Group 1: Economic Forecasts - ADB has revised Vietnam's 2025 economic growth forecast from 6.6% to 6.3% and 2026 from 6.5% to 6.0% [1] - Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its forecast for 2025 from 6.7% to 6.1% [1] - UOB has increased its 2025 growth forecast from 6.0% to 6.9%, suggesting that the most tense period of US-Vietnam trade has passed [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment Insights - Short-term trade prospects for Vietnam are showing signs of slowing, with potential US tariffs likely to suppress export demand for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 [1] - Long-term economic resilience is expected due to strong foreign investment inflows and a solidified position in the global supply chain [1] - Recommendations include accelerating public investment, particularly in key infrastructure projects, to generate spillover effects, enhance productivity, and attract more foreign capital [1] Group 3: GDP Growth Projections - ADB and Standard Chartered's forecasts indicate a cautious outlook for GDP growth in the near term [1] - UOB estimates Vietnam's GDP growth rate for Q3 and Q4 this year to be around 6.4%, with an annual GDP growth rate potentially reaching 6.9% [1]
国际金融机构对2025年越南经济增长预期持向左看法