天风证券：Q2回调时加仓算力的基金 现在减仓了吗?

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates a divergence in the market regarding the overseas computing power chain, with significant developments observed from April to August, coinciding with the disclosure of heavy holdings in fund quarterly reports [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - From August 25 onwards, the daily return volatility of actively managed equity funds heavily invested in overseas computing power has increased [2]. - The correlation between the daily returns of these funds and the fluctuations of the overseas computing power index has been rising since June, with September showing even greater consistency [2]. - The standard deviation of daily price changes for the components of the overseas computing power index has also increased in September, aligning with the return volatility of the funds [2]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The theoretical and actual returns of actively managed equity funds focused on overseas computing power showed a strong positive correlation during June, July, and August [2]. - In September, about one-third of the funds deviated significantly from their estimated theoretical returns, with actual returns exceeding theoretical ones, indicating notable portfolio adjustments [2]. - Funds with over 60% holdings in leading overseas computing power companies as of June 30, 2025, were primarily responsible for this deviation [2]. Group 3: Fund Holdings and Impact - As of September 18, 2025, the adjustment levels of actively managed equity funds focused on overseas computing power are not expected to significantly impact the leading companies in this sector [3]. - Funds with over 40% holdings in leading overseas computing power companies increased their allocations by more than 20% from the previous quarter, totaling approximately 7.931 billion yuan [3]. - Funds with 20-40% holdings that also increased their allocations by over 20% held approximately 11.448 billion yuan, together accounting for less than 1% of the market capitalization of the overseas computing power index components [3].