Microsoft(US:MSFT) Hu Xiu·2025-09-23 06:45Core Insights - The paper predicts that in the era of AGI, while the economy may experience exponential growth due to the expansion of computing power, ordinary people's wages will be "locked" by the cost of computing power, becoming completely decoupled from economic growth [1][2][15]. Group 1: Wage Dynamics in the AGI Economy - In traditional economics, wages are linked to "skill scarcity," where individuals can command a premium for unique skills [4]. - The paper argues that in an AGI economy, wages will depend on the computing power required to replicate a person's skills, rather than the scarcity of those skills [5][10]. - The value of professions, such as that of a surgeon, will be determined by the computing power needed for AGI to simulate their tasks [9][11]. Group 2: Wealth Distribution and Power Shift - The model suggests that as AGI automates all bottleneck jobs, the share of labor in GDP will approach zero, with nearly all new wealth flowing to computing capital [22][23]. - Computing power will become the core asset determining wealth distribution, akin to land and machinery during the Industrial Revolution [25]. - Companies like Microsoft are already investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with plans to spend approximately $80 billion on AI-driven data centers in the 2025 fiscal year [26]. Group 3: The Role of Accessory Work - While AGI will automate many tasks, there will still be "accessory work" that holds social value but does not drive economic growth, such as caregiving and artistic endeavors [35][36]. - These roles may not provide increasing income but will retain a necessary social significance, as they are less likely to be automated due to their complexity or the value of human interaction [41][42]. Group 4: Future Wealth Distribution Mechanisms - The paper highlights a critical issue: as labor's share of GDP diminishes, a new mechanism for wealth distribution must be established to address the concentration of wealth among computing power owners [51][52]. - Potential solutions include universal dividends from computing profits or treating computing resources as public capital, similar to Norway's oil fund model [56]. - The concentration of computing power among a few tech giants raises concerns about increasing social inequality if wealth distribution mechanisms are not implemented [59][60].