TSMC(US:TSM) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-23 08:54Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on TSMC (TSM.US) with a target price of NT$1,275, citing significant increases in CoWoS capacity projections for 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: TSMC Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 95,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 and further increase to 112,000 wafers per month by the end of 2027, which is a notable upgrade from previous forecasts [1] - The expansion is primarily driven by the planned capacity construction of the AP8 factory, expected to commence production in mid-2026, alongside sustained demand from key clients such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD [1] - From the second half of 2026, full-stack CoWoS packaging orders for non-AI products will begin to shift to OSAT partners, mainly ASE, allowing TSMC to focus more on the CoW (Chip-on-Wafer) segment [1] Group 2: Client Demand Insights - Broadcom is projected to have a CoWoS allocation of 185,000 wafers in 2026, representing a 93% year-over-year increase, driven mainly by demand from Google's TPU project [2] - Morgan Stanley estimates that TPU shipments will reach 2.5 million units in 2026, a 38% increase year-over-year, with additional contributions from Meta's first CoWoS-based ASIC (Athena) and OpenAI's ASIC projects [2] - NVIDIA's demand is expected to remain robust in the first half of 2026 due to increased chip sizes and strong B300 demand, with an estimated production of 2.9 million Rubin GPUs [3] Group 3: AMD's Growth Dynamics - AMD's CoWoS demand is expected to remain stable in 2025 but will grow in 2026 with the ramp-up of MI400/MI450 series and Venice CPU, which utilize HBM and CoWoS-S packaging [4] - The adoption rate of MI400/450 (using CoWoS-L) will be a key variable for AMD's growth trajectory, while the company plans to expand 2.5D/wafers-level fan-out packaging applications in gaming GPUs and high-end server/PC CPUs in 2026/27 [4]