Nvidia(US:NVDA) 3 6 Ke·2025-09-23 11:52Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is initiating interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in global asset prices, particularly in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 index hitting new highs multiple times this year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Risk and safe-haven assets are both reaching historical highs, raising questions about whether the market has perfectly priced in all favorable conditions [2]. - Analysts from Bank of America and Deutsche Bank suggest that the market is not yet in a "perfect pricing" state, indicating potential for further gains despite existing bubble signs [2][5]. - The current economic environment, characterized by tax cuts, tariff reductions, and interest rate cuts, is providing implicit guarantees for the economy and stock market [2]. Group 2: Asset Performance - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 43%, reflecting investor concerns over inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [1][9]. - The market sentiment is shifting towards risk assets as investors feel that holding cash is less favorable compared to consumption or investment [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data shows that past stock market bubbles have seen average gains of 244% from low to peak, suggesting that the current market may still have room to grow [3][5]. - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have risen by 223% since March 2023, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 39, indicating significant market interest in these assets [4][5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - A five-point trading strategy is proposed to navigate the current market, including investing in bubble assets, creating a "barbell" portfolio, shorting bubble company bonds, and focusing on volatility [6][7]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of recognizing the potential for further asset price inflation and the historical tendency for rising interest rates to follow asset bubbles [6][7]. Group 5: Gold Market Analysis - The current environment for gold is described as a "perfect storm," driven by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation fears, and expectations of interest rate cuts [9][10]. - Despite concerns about a potential bubble, key market indicators do not yet show signs of irrational exuberance, suggesting that gold is in a sustained bull market rather than a bubble [10][11].