Deutsche Bank AG(US:DB) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-24 00:13Core Viewpoint - Gold futures prices have surged to nearly $3,800 per ounce, reaching a historical high due to market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to strong inflows of safe-haven funds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold futures for September delivery rose by 1.1% to $3,780.60 per ounce, marking the third consecutive day of record highs [1]. - Silver futures for September delivery increased by 0.9% to $44.192 per ounce, also achieving its highest level since May 2, 2011 [1]. - Year-to-date, gold has risen by 40%, representing the most significant annual increase since 1979 [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential rate cuts by the end of the year, citing severe economic conditions and inflation risks [3]. - Market expectations indicate a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and a 77% probability in December [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Current demand for gold is driven by U.S. government policy uncertainty, concerns over the dollar, and geopolitical instability [5]. - Major Wall Street banks have raised their gold price forecasts following the recent highs, with Deutsche Bank predicting an average price of $4,000 per ounce in 2024 [6]. - UBS has adjusted its gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $3,900 by mid-2026, citing weak U.S. labor data and anticipated Fed rate cuts [6]. - JPMorgan expects spot gold prices to exceed $4,000 per ounce in Q1 2026, supported by cyclical and structural factors [7].