SCS(SH:601555) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-24 02:29Core Insights - Robotaxi represents a fundamental technological innovation that transforms the shared mobility experience, reshaping the market's business model, competitive landscape, and profit distribution within the industry [1][2] Group 1: Market Potential - The Robotaxi market in China is projected to reach 83.1 billion yuan by 2030, with an estimated fleet of 500,000 vehicles, and exceed 709.6 billion yuan by 2035, corresponding to 2.5 million vehicles, indicating a significant growth potential in the shared mobility sector [1][2] - The long-term market space for Robotaxi could reach several trillion yuan, considering the ongoing replacement of traditional taxis, ride-hailing services, and personal vehicles [1][2] Group 2: Historical Context - The transition from traditional taxis to ride-hailing services has improved user experience but has not fundamentally changed the market dynamics, leading to an oversupply situation and profitability challenges for drivers, taxi companies, and ride-hailing platforms [1] Group 3: Technological and Policy Drivers - The commercialization of Robotaxi is being accelerated by advancements in Level 4 autonomous driving technology, improved sensor integration, and a supportive policy framework, with 20 cities set to pilot "vehicle-road-cloud integration" in 2024 [2] - The hardware costs for Robotaxi are decreasing, with the BOM for Baidu's sixth-generation vehicle dropping to 204,600 yuan and the price of lidar sensors falling below 200 USD [2] Group 4: Valuation Methodology - The valuation of Robotaxi should consider the revenue-generating capacity of the autonomous vehicles, which is influenced by the number of vehicles and their operational capabilities, with a focus on the non-linear differences in capability levels compared to human drivers [3] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Robotaxi industry chain is identified as the best investment theme in the AI smart vehicle sector over the next five years, with various categories of investment opportunities including integrated models, technology providers, traditional ride-hailing transformations, vehicle manufacturers, and core hardware suppliers [4]