Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for Mixue Group (02097) with a target price of HKD 555, corresponding to 32x/28x P/E for 2025/2026, indicating a potential upside of 35% [1] Group 1: Integrated Supply Chain Capability - The company is enhancing its integrated supply chain capabilities, solidifying quality-price ratio and scale flywheel effects [2] - On the procurement side, the company collaborates deeply with major suppliers globally, reducing costs through scale effects, with planned purchases of 115,000 tons of lemons, 27,000 tons of fresh oranges, 61,000 tons of tea leaves, and 13,000 tons of coffee beans in 2024 [2] - The company is improving factory automation and optimizing product taste through process upgrades, while establishing 29 domestic warehouses and local storage systems in countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia, achieving over 90% coverage of county-level administrative regions in mainland China within 12 hours [2] - The company has developed an intelligent dispensing machine to enhance store operational efficiency, reducing service time from over 20 seconds to 8-10 seconds, with 4,000-5,000 units currently deployed [2] Group 2: Impact of Delivery Subsidies - The impact of delivery subsidies is gradually weakening, but the company is expected to achieve relatively stable performance growth despite potential disruptions [3] - CICC estimates that the company’s same-store sales grew by 13% year-on-year in H1 due to delivery subsidies, with delivery revenue share increasing by approximately 10 percentage points [3] - The company is expected to counter the impact of declining delivery subsidies through product innovation, offline marketing, and mini-program traffic [3] Group 3: Focus on Lucky Coffee and Overseas Adjustments - Lucky Coffee is leveraging Mixue's supply chain advantages to enhance fruit and coffee product innovation, with coffee product revenue accounting for over half of total revenue [4] - The company has signed over 8,000 new stores nationwide as of August 27, with expectations to reach around 8,000 operational stores by year-end [4] - The overseas market is still in an adjustment phase, with higher gross margins compared to domestic operations, allowing the company to maintain profitability for franchisees while enhancing quality-price positioning through product iterations [4]
中金：维持蜜雪集团“跑赢行业”评级 目标价555港元