TF Securities(SH:601162) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-24 08:52Core Viewpoint - The dairy and beef industries are experiencing significant changes, with dairy prices under pressure and beef prices entering an upward trend, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector. Dairy Sector - Supply contraction in the dairy sector may be nearing its end, with approximately 8% of dairy cow capacity having been reduced as of August 2025, following four years of declining milk prices and 1.5 years of industry losses [1] - The upcoming third quarter's silage feed procurement season is expected to increase funding demands, potentially accelerating the reduction of dairy farm inventories [1] - The tight supply-demand balance, driven by reduced production capacity and seasonal consumption peaks, is likely to support a rebound in milk prices [2] Beef Sector - The domestic beef production capacity has been thoroughly cleared, with the current loss cycle exceeding 600 days and an average loss of 725 yuan per head, leading to a significant reduction in breeding cows [3] - External factors affecting beef supply are diminishing, with adverse conditions in major foreign production areas contributing to a long-term global beef supply gap [3] - The combination of reduced domestic beef supply and limited imports is expected to lead to a contraction in beef supply by the second half of 2025, indicating a potential super cycle in beef prices [3] Specific Companies - In the beef sector, companies such as China Shengmu, Guangming Meat Industry, and Fucheng Co. are recommended for investment due to the anticipated reduction in beef supply [4] - In the dairy sector, companies like Youran Dairy, China Shengmu, Modern Dairy, Aoya Group, and Tianrun Dairy are suggested for monitoring as the industry approaches a potential price rebound [4]