“机械降神”！AI能救美国吗？

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is acting as a "Deus ex Machina" for the U.S. economy, driven by unprecedented capital expenditure in AI infrastructure, which offsets negative impacts from tariffs and immigration policies [1][3] - The current economic growth is primarily fueled by investments in AI capabilities rather than productivity gains from AI itself, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth model [3][6] Economic Implications - Employment slowdown is decoupled from recession, as AI-driven capital deepening does not require significant labor, allowing for superficial economic growth despite a weak job market [5] - Global trade shows unexpected resilience, particularly in tech-heavy regions like North Asia, partly due to chip exemptions from tariffs encouraging preemptive stockpiling [5] - A "dual-speed" investment cycle is evident, with robust AI infrastructure investments contrasting sharply with a general downturn in traditional industry investments [5] - Technology stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," are significantly outperforming other sectors, reflecting the direct impact of AI capital expenditure on market performance [5] - Inflation remains moderate due to overall weak economic demand, despite the hot investment in specific sectors [5] Future Considerations - The sustainability of AI investment as an economic driver is under serious scrutiny, with warnings that capital investment growth is unlikely to maintain its current trajectory [6] - Two critical questions for investors include the timing of the transition from capital expenditure-driven growth to productivity gains from AI and the distribution of AI's productivity benefits globally [7][9]