Bank of America(US:BAC) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-25 00:45Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is considered "extremely expensive," but a deeper analysis suggests that high valuations may be justified due to the inherent qualities of current index constituents [1][4]. Group 1: Valuation Indicators - 19 out of 20 internal indicators tracked by Bank of America show that the S&P 500 index is at statistically high trading prices, with 4 indicators reaching historical highs [1]. - The S&P 500's 12-month forward P/E ratio has reached a high of 22.9, a level only surpassed during the dot-com bubble and the summer of 2020 [2]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - Current index constituents exhibit lower financial leverage, reduced earnings volatility, higher efficiency, and more stable profit margins compared to previous decades, supporting the high valuations [1]. - The S&P 500 index has surged over 30% since its low on April 8, and has not seen a decline of more than 2% for 108 consecutive trading days, marking the longest such period since July 2024 [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - Despite risks from U.S. tariff policies and their potential impact on economic growth and inflation, the quality of current index constituents may lead to better performance in a low-interest-rate environment [4]. - The likelihood of a "tail event" occurring by 2026 is considered higher than the chances of stagflation or recession, given the current fiscal policy landscape and the Fed's actions [5].