Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-25 06:13Core Viewpoint - The modern coal chemical industry is entering a development opportunity period due to the resonance of industrial upgrading and energy security, with coal as a primary raw material for producing alternative petrochemical products and clean fuels [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Modern coal chemical industry includes coal-to-olefins, coal-to-ethylene glycol, coal-to-aromatics, coal-to-oil, and coal-to-natural gas, characterized by high technological content and added value [2]. - China's energy reserves show a "rich coal, poor oil, and less gas" feature, with coal accounting for over 50% of the energy consumption structure [2][3]. - The high dependence on imported oil and gas resources, with 2023 import ratios of 73% for crude oil and 42% for natural gas, necessitates the development of modern coal chemical industry to alleviate external dependency [2]. Group 2: Regional Advantages - Xinjiang has the foundational conditions to become a large coal chemical base, with coal reserves of 2.19 trillion tons, accounting for about 40% of the national total [3]. - The coal types in Xinjiang are of high quality, primarily consisting of low-volatile long flame coal, non-caking coal, and weakly caking coal, suitable for both power generation and chemical raw materials [3]. - The cost advantages in Xinjiang make it suitable for open-pit mining, supported by national policies positioning Xinjiang as a major coal chemical base [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment in coal chemical projects is projected to exceed 800 billion yuan in Xinjiang, with specific projects including 9 coal-to-olefins projects (investment of 257.5 billion yuan), 11 coal-to-natural gas projects (investment of 310.9 billion yuan), and 3 coal-to-oil projects (investment of 104.3 billion yuan) [3]. - The coal-to-gas projects in Xinjiang have a total investment of 260.3 billion yuan, with planned capacity of 40 billion cubic meters, showcasing significant economic advantages due to lower coal prices compared to other regions [4]. - The coal-to-oil projects in Xinjiang are expected to achieve breakeven at coal prices of 500-600 yuan/ton and international oil prices of 60-70 USD/barrel, with production costs significantly lower than in other regions [5]. Group 4: Investment Directions - Investment opportunities can be categorized into three main areas: equipment manufacturers, project owners, and service providers [7]. - Recommended companies for equipment and engineering services include Sanwei Chemical, China Chemical, and Donghua Technology [7]. - Companies benefiting from Xinjiang's cost advantages in coal chemical projects include Baofeng Energy and Guanghui Energy [7].