Global Dividend Growth Accelerates As Bull Market Turns Three

Core Insights - Dividend-increase announcements are on the rise, with 71.9% of all changes being positive in 2025, surpassing previous years' figures [1][16] - The global bull market is nearing its three-year mark, contributing to the increase in dividend payouts [2][16] - Companies are showing stronger payouts compared to previous years, supported by a weaker dollar and resilient consumer spending [4][7] Dividend Changes and Market Impact - The current-year dividend hike tally stands at 3,553, with Q2 2025 recording 11,194 price adjustments, the highest in five years [1][3] - The iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF has outperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF by 11.4 percentage points year-to-date, largely due to a 10% drop in the U.S. Dollar Index [6][16] - A softer dollar benefits multinational corporations as they convert foreign sales back to dollars, leading to record earnings per share estimates for the S&P 500 [7][15] Consumer Spending and Employment Outlook - Robust consumer spending is crucial, with August's Retail Sales report indicating a 0.7% increase in the core control group, driven by successful back-to-school shopping [7][8] - Upcoming employment data will be critical in assessing the sustainability of consumer spending, with expectations low following recent soft payroll gains [8][9] Capital Allocation and Shareholder Preferences - Companies are likely to adjust capital allocation plans based on macroeconomic conditions, with fewer dividend announcements typically seen in the second half of the year [10][11] - Investors are increasingly favoring cash returns through dividends and buybacks, as indicated by BofA's Global Fund Manager Survey [11][12] Notable Company Actions - JPMorgan Chase announced a dividend increase from $1.40 to $1.50 per share, following a strong Q2 report and a new share repurchase program [13][14] - The Fed's potential rate cuts could enhance the attractiveness of dividend stocks compared to bonds, especially if Treasury yields remain stable [15][16]