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固生堂(02273.HK):内生盈利高增 推进AI与出海

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved revenue of 1.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 150 million yuan, up 41.9% year-on-year, with operating cash flow of 300 million yuan, an increase of 111% year-on-year, and free cash flow of 210 million yuan, up 466% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue from healthcare solutions reached 1.48 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [1] - Revenue from the sales of health products was 10 million yuan, a decrease of 50.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in low-margin product sales [1] - Offline institutional revenue was 1.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with same-store sales accounting for 97.3% of this revenue, indicating growth driven by existing store operations [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The company added 7 new stores in H1 2025 (4 self-built and 3 acquired) and entered 2 new cities, indicating a strategy of "steady growth from existing stores and orderly expansion of new stores" [1] - The company reported a 209% year-on-year increase in revenue from in-hospital preparations and other self-priced products, marking explosive growth [2] - The company has established deep collaborations with major platforms like Xiaohongshu, Meituan, Douyin, and Gaode Map, with new users from these platforms accounting for 7.6% of the group's offline new user count [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its AI capabilities, with the AI prescription payment rate reaching 76.7%, showing a month-on-month improvement [2] - The company has accumulated over 20 million consultation data, 18 million cases, and 100,000 high-quality expert data, indicating a strong data foundation for future AI applications [2] - The company plans to open AI-related functions to young doctors in October, further expanding its AI product offerings [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast - Based on the mid-year report for 2025, the company adjusted its revenue downwards but raised its gross margin forecast, with projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 being 1.54, 1.88, and 2.30 yuan respectively [3] - The company is assigned a target price of 45.54 HKD based on a 27 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]