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矿端扰动提振 沪铜强势突破【9月25日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Group 1 - Copper prices surged, with the night session opening high and reaching a peak of 82,980 yuan, marking the highest point since late March this year, closing up 3.4%, while international copper rose by 3.58% [1] - Freeport announced a force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia and lowered its copper sales forecast, highlighting the vulnerability of the mining sector and intensifying the tension in raw material supply [1] - Following the mudflow incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine, Freeport indicated that it would notify commercial counterparts of the force majeure situation and reduced its third-quarter copper sales guidance by 4% [1] Group 2 - The preliminary assessment suggests that the Grasberg mine may return to pre-incident operational levels by 2027, with Freeport's 2026 copper production target lowered by 35% compared to pre-incident levels, raising concerns over global copper supply [1] - Jinrui Futures stated that the short-term supply and demand are weakening, expecting a continued tight balance in the market, with prices likely to shift to a stronger trend due to significant mining disruptions [1]